O/T Cumbria and the virus

[black morse]

Can anyone enlighten me as to why Cumbria, with more than 40 new cases per 10,000 people per day is one of the hotspots of the virus?

[captain sparkle]

Apparently, some of that number is because of more testing in the area....

After Barrow, Lancaster and South Lakeland have the second and third highest rates of coronavirus infection, which corresponds with much higher than average testing rates, said Cox.(Colin Cox, the director of public health for Cumbria)

[KenH]

But we also seem to have unexpectedly high death rates considering the relatively small population.

My wife has a friend who's an NHS worker and has given the following as potential reasons.

1. Average age of local population is higher than national average, and as we know, the elderly are more vulnerable.

2. There are quite a few care homes in South Lakeland and some have been pretty badly hit with Covid rampaging through their residents.

3. Quite a few patients in a local hospital who were in for different reasons from before Covid were infected whilst in hospital which caused quite a panic amongst NHS bosses. Similar to how the norovirus closed whole wards in past years - Covid spread very rapidly through some wards.

4. There are a lot of second homes in North Lancs, South Lakes, Yorkshire Dales, etc., and their owners left London and moved up to this area (some possibly bringing Covid with them) when things started looking serious.

[P/T Indie]

The local trust is the only trust in the country to test all staff and their families with symptoms from the start which is why have more confirmed cases.

However I think cumbria has been hit badly for the reasons below.

[Keith]

If you do zero tests, then you'd have zero cases.
Do lots of tests, you have lots of cases.

I wonder if some places deliberately didn't test 'too much'?

Did you see that when Hancock met his '100,000 tests per day' target, they included 40,000 tests that were 'in the post'?

[captain sparkle]

Did you see that when Hancock met his '100,000 tests per day' target, they included 40,000 tests that were 'in the post'?

I think they've done that every time they claim to pass the 100,000 tests per day target.

[Gone_Shrimping]

Did you see that when Hancock met his '100,000 tests per day' target, they included 40,000 tests that were 'in the post'?

I think they've done that every time they claim to pass the 100,000 tests per day target.

The number of tests are calculated on the same basis as they were when there were 10,000 tests per day. The tests are counted when they are sent out and are not included in the number on the day they are returned.

[Keith]

Did you see that when Hancock met his '100,000 tests per day' target, they included 40,000 tests that were 'in the post'?

I think they've done that every time they claim to pass the 100,000 tests per day target.

The number of tests are calculated on the same basis as they were when there were 10,000 tests per day...

...that 40,000 of the 10,000 are in the post?

[Gone_Shrimping]

I think they've done that every time they claim to pass the 100,000 tests per day target.[/quote]

The number of tests are calculated on the same basis as they were when there were 10,000 tests per day...[/quote]

...that 40,000 of the 10,000 are in the post?[/quote]

Errr no pro rata there would have been a very small number of tests posted out when it was 10k per day.

[Keith]

Errr no pro rata there would have been a very small number of tests posted out when it was 10k per day.

I know, I was being sarcastic!

But there are a couple of serious points. Firstly, most people weren't aware that they were massaging the figures [AKA 'lying'] previously and secondly, pro-rata it was a small actual number, now it is a huge number. They can't claim to have completed tests simply because they were posted out. Although, this is the same bunch who claimed they would increase the number of nurses in the NHS by not letting existing nurses leave, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised.

Can you imagine the Daily Fail headline if Diane Abbott had said the same thing?

[sandgrown]

Errr no pro rata there would have been a very small number of tests posted out when it was 10k per day.

I know, I was being sarcastic!

But there are a couple of serious points. Firstly, most people weren't aware that they were massaging the figures [AKA 'lying'] previously and secondly, pro-rata it was a small actual number, now it is a huge number. They can't claim to have completed tests simply because they were posted out. Although, this is the same bunch who claimed they would increase the number of nurses in the NHS by not letting existing nurses leave, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised.

Can you imagine the Daily Fail headline if Diane Abbott had said the same thing?

very true, trouble is Diane struggles past 20

[Gone_Shrimping]

Errr no pro rata there would have been a very small number of tests posted out when it was 10k per day.

I know, I was being sarcastic!

But there are a couple of serious points. Firstly, most people weren't aware that they were massaging the figures [AKA 'lying'] previously and secondly, pro-rata it was a small actual number, now it is a huge number. They can't claim to have completed tests simply because they were posted out. Although, this is the same bunch who claimed they would increase the number of nurses in the NHS by not letting existing nurses leave, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised.

Can you imagine the Daily Fail headline if Diane Abbott had said the same thing?

Yes , I too was being sarcastic. The point I was labouring to make was that as long as the accounting methods had been consistent throughout then the 122k figure that took the wind out of Peston and Kuhnsberg's sails was soundly based.

[redrobo]

Whoever was in power at the time would have made a complete mess of the entire subject.

[morecambegeek]

Whoever was in power at the time would have made a complete mess of the entire subject.

The difference in response and the effectiveness of response of government's around the world would suggest otherwise.

[Keith]

Whoever was in power at the time would have made a complete mess of the entire subject.

That really encapsulates the mess in British politics.

Johnson lies, his supporters respond 'well all politicians lie'.
Johnson screws up, 'well, they'd all have screwed up'.

The UK's pandemic PPE store was set up by the last Labour government. Over the last decade of Tory mismanagement, they allowed it to get used without being replenished or to go out of date.Some stock is eight years out of date and they didn't have a solitary syringe or needle that was still in date. But I'm sure that it would still be anyone but the Tories fault? Bloody Corbyn, letting the country's emergency PPE go out of date...

[Sakhalin Shrimp]

Isn’t the Welsh Government Labour? Just saying like.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52339103

Didn’t I read that even you had let your pandemic store of pot noodles go out of date Keith?

[MFC-Manc]

Whoever was in power at the time would have made a complete mess of the entire subject.

I’m sorry but that’s absolute rubbish.....

Lots of other countries showed how it was done, we had a semi lockdown with planes arriving and no checks.

I hope criminal charges are brought against them for the deaths they have caused.

[Keith]

Didn’t I read that even you had let your pandemic store of pot noodles go out of date Keith?

I know, I was gutted by my incompetence. However, I was also rather smug, safe in the knowledge that while half the world went mad for toilet roll, I had plenty in my pandemic flu emergency stock! And we had rotated our dried pasta so that wasn't a problem!

[Gone_Shrimping]

Whoever was in power at the time would have made a complete mess of the entire subject.

I’m sorry but that’s absolute rubbish.....

Lots of other countries showed how it was done, we had a semi lockdown with planes arriving and no checks.

I hope criminal charges are brought against them for the deaths they have caused.

Bullshit.

In COBRA meetings Governments take advice and act on the scientific experts that are employed just for emergencies like the Coronavirus. The same advice would be given whoever is in power. Our death rate in relation to population is lower than Italy and Spain , maybe Belgium. Are criminal charges going to be brought against their leaders ? Scotland's infection rates are worse than England and their care home deaths are twice the rate of those in England , is Nicola Sturgeon going to be charged ?

[Sakhalin Shrimp]

Didn’t I read that even you had let your pandemic store of pot noodles go out of date Keith?

I know, I was gutted by my incompetence. However, I was also rather smug, safe in the knowledge that while half the world went mad for toilet roll, I had plenty in my pandemic flu emergency stock! And we had rotated our dried pasta so that wasn't a problem!

Good stuff, I suppose that shows mistakes have and will be made throughout this pandemic whoever you are. I know we’ll never know how it would have panned out under Corbyn but, personally, I’m glad we didn’t have to.

Just as an aside, you’ll know better than me from your experience with the NHS, does the NHS have it’s own procurement department to control/ monitor stocks of PPE?

[MFC-Manc]

Whoever was in power at the time would have made a complete mess of the entire subject.

I’m sorry but that’s absolute rubbish.....

Lots of other countries showed how it was done, we had a semi lockdown with planes arriving and no checks.

I hope criminal charges are brought against them for the deaths they have caused.

Bullshit.

In COBRA meetings Governments take advice and act on the scientific experts that are employed just for emergencies like the Coronavirus. The same advice would be given whoever is in power. Our death rate in relation to population is lower than Italy and Spain , maybe Belgium. Are criminal charges going to be brought against their leaders ? Scotland's infection rates are worse than England and their care home deaths are twice the rate of those in England , is Nicola Sturgeon going to be charged ?

As usual you haven’t got a clue
The government “chooses” who they take advice off. Chris whitty looks embarrassed stood next to Johnson and even distances himself when Boris answers questions.

Spin the numbers however you like, 60 thousand dead second highest death toll in the world is nothing to be proud of!
Boris Johnson and his government haven’t got a clue..... 2 months ago “we didn’t need to cancel flights and have a 14 day quarantine” now...”we must have a 14 day quarantine”
The tories cheered when the nhs didn’t get a pay rise and now they are clapping on Thursday’s..

[Gone_Shrimping]

I’m sorry but that’s absolute rubbish.....

Lots of other countries showed how it was done, we had a semi lockdown with planes arriving and no checks.

I hope criminal charges are brought against them for the deaths they have caused.[/quote]

Bullshit.

In COBRA meetings Governments take advice and act on the scientific experts that are employed just for emergencies like the Coronavirus. The same advice would be given whoever is in power. Our death rate in relation to population is lower than Italy and Spain , maybe Belgium. Are criminal charges going to be brought against their leaders ? Scotland's infection rates are worse than England and their care home deaths are twice the rate of those in England , is Nicola Sturgeon going to be charged ?[/quote]

As usual you haven’t got a clue
The government “chooses” who they take advice off. Chris whitty looks embarrassed stood next to Johnson and even distances himself when Boris answers questions.

Spin the numbers however you like, 60 thousand dead second highest death toll in the world is nothing to be proud of!
Boris Johnson and his government haven’t got a clue..... 2 months ago “we didn’t need to cancel flights and have a 14 day quarantine” now...”we must have a 14 day quarantine”
The tories cheered when the nhs didn’t get a pay rise and now they are clapping on Thursday’s..[/quote]

No need for the nasty personal remarks although that is a characteristic of the intolerant left.

60,000 ! Is that Dianne Abacus's figure. When all the deaths are analysed in the aftermath then a good number will be found to have passed away from symptoms not directly related to Coronavirus and that it was a contributary factor in their death but not the only factor. How many people die every Winter from flu and other viruses , it probably dwarfs the death toll from Coronavirus.
Due to being in hospital and ICU for about 4 weeks and then recuperating the PM has not been on very many platforms with Chris Whitty so not sure what you have been watching. You were probably one of the left that was praying for him to die.
The cheering you refer to was for the defeat of a Labour motion but don't let the truth get in the way of a good smear.
The infection rates are higher in Wales , Scotland and N Ireland than they are in England and they have their own devolved governments dealing with the crisis.

[MFC-Manc]

No need for the nasty personal remarks although that is a characteristic of the intolerant left.

60,000 ! Is that Dianne Abacus's figure. When all the deaths are analysed in the aftermath then a good number will be found to have passed away from symptoms not directly related to Coronavirus and that it was a contributary factor in their death but not the only factor. How many people die every Winter from flu and other viruses , it probably dwarfs the death toll from Coronavirus.
Due to being in hospital and ICU for about 4 weeks and then recuperating the PM has not been on very many platforms with Chris Whitty so not sure what you have been watching. You were probably one of the left that was praying for him to die.
The cheering you refer to was for the defeat of a Labour motion but don't let the truth get in the way of a good smear.
The infection rates are higher in Wales , Scotland and N Ireland than they are in England and they have their own devolved governments dealing with the crisis.

reading your reply is exactly why I said "You haven't got a clue"

I would never wish anyone to die.(disgusting comment but what did i expect from you)

Remember Boris's advice?
Take it on the chin
Herd Immunity
We should all shake hands etc etc

Have Italy and Spain got a higher percentage of Old People?

We were 4 weeks at least behind Italy so we had plenty of warning

The government sent people to Care Homes knowing they had COVID19, but didn't tell the owners or staff.

The Tories underfunded our NHS and left front line workers with no PPE, Care home staff still haven't got it!

Anyone can view the Tories cheering on Youtube.....

I notice how you don't mention Germany or all the other countries who have been pro-active and have significant less death rate than the uk.

As for the death rate, do I need to explain about ONS Figures /Average death rates etc etc, the figure they give out is know where near the amount of people who have died.

Maybe you could Blame Tony Blair? or the working class?or the poor? for Covid 19

You will be telling me David Morris is a pro-active truthful politician next.

[redrobo]

Governments rely on the advice of scientists but who questions the scientists......

[Posh]

Governments rely on the advice of scientists

They say that when it suits them. There is plenty of evidence that they've completely ignored scientific advice in their decision-making.

If everything had gone right you wouldn't hear Hancock or Johnson giving credit to the scientists they would have taken the glory for themselves. When it is the sh**show that it is they pass the buck to the 'scientists'.

To pick on the other points.

1. Barrow / UH Morecambe Bay NHS Trust. Started testing in early March and when the government decided to stop testing after the 'containment phase' ended, they carried on regardless. Barrow, Lancaster and South Lakeland are 1, 2 and 3 out of over 300 councils on infection rates and all are part of UHMBT. I think our Trust (whose command centre approach has been adopted by most London trusts https://www.digitalhealth.net/2020/05/m ... on-trusts/) and Lancaster City Council, whose vulnerable people strategy has been picked up by lots of other councils, has been brilliant.

As for death rates, Lancaster is below average and South Lakeland and Barrow-in-Furness are average or slightly above average (although the data is old). Table of contents 4. Local authorities and then check https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... and17april. Barrow's higher death rate has been blamed on BAE but there is no firm evidence.

2. UK death rates. The UK had advanced knowledge of coronavirus as Italy was four weeks ahead and Spain three weeks, yet it did nothing. The UK death rate per head of population is the highest in the world and its above average death rate percentage is the highest in the world. Only Belgum fares as badly and their people are far more angry than we are (see the reception for the Belgian PM at a hospital https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 19686.html). Even the government abandoned comparisons the day we reached top on death rates.

This is not defensible. Lack of prepardeness, care home strategy, PPE and failure to act will all be tested at a public enquiry after this is over. I'd be happy if the Tories were just honest and admitted failings and took credit when it was due. Yet Hancock and Johnson's blatant politicisation and lies is why their ratings have collapsed over the past couple of weeks and not just the fact that they've been poor on strategy.