O/T THE Coronavirus Pandemic!

[shrimperteer]

Hopefully all the white middle aged men who have suddenly become medical experts will continue their expertise past the pandemic and help clear the nhs backlog.

The guy has proved himself to be an idiot on most topics. Just comes on here and spouts whatever the Sun has told him.

[shrimperteer]

the virus has a survival rate of 99.96%.

Not a problem Keith, you're welcome

https://twitter.com/GraalTruth/status/1 ... 99170?s=09

Twitter is never the best place to use as "evidence".

You've mixed up two completely different things.

The likelihood of dying from the virus is very low, because most people haven't caught it and we've known right from the start that it has almost no impact upon the health of children. We already know that most people won't get it.

"Not getting" the virus is completely different to catching it and then, as you claimed "surviving" it.

The authors of the actual study have the 'Infection Fatality Ratio' (IFR) for Central Europe as 1.24% which is broadly within line with the figures presented elsewhere.

The "Severe Cases" for Central Europe is 4.63%. [This includes deaths].

Western Europe has a 0.9% IFR & 4.67% 'Severe Cases', so very slightly higher 'severe cases' but slightly lower mortality rate.

If (as you appear to be suggesting, the virus was allowed to simply run its course, until 100% of the population had been exposed to it, then using this study's estimates, 650,000 people in the UK would die from COVID-19.

The whole point of restrictions is to slow the spread down, not eradicate the virus. In the six months or so of the pandemic, there have been huge advances in the treatment of COVID-19. In March, if you were admitted to an intensive care unit with COVID-19, the mortality rate was >60%. It is now <30%. Pneumonia survival in ICU is around 20%, so the treatment has become far more effective. Also, as mentioned in the report, the risk is/was that ICU's and health systems generally, could be overwhelmed by a sudden spike in infections. However, also in the report, by focussing purely on COVID-19 restrictions, people will die due to other conditions not being treated;

"COVID-19 presents policymakers with difficult trade-offs. Many governments in low- and middle-income countries have resorted to severe lockdown measures which impose high costs. Recent estimates suggest COVID-19 mitigation efforts and the reallocation of healthcare resources in the developing world could contribute indirectly to over one million additional child deaths [22]. These unintended consequences must be weighed against the direct toll of an unmitigated pandemic...

...In the absence of widespread testing or reliable vital registration systems, transparent calculations of likely IFRs provide an important input into optimal policy design under extreme uncertainty, particularly as the pandemic expands into new geographies and/or a second wave of infections arrives".

If you want to look beyond Twitter, the entire report is here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

You see the problem with this reply is it can’t be summed up into a 3 word slogan, so it won’t sink in for him.