The ‘Run-in’

[RapidShrimp]

After that great win tonight, we’ve now had 3 wins in our last 4, and positivity is back! 14 games left so we are nearly 75% of the way through the season! Our games to go are:

Carlisle
Forest Green
Newport
Harrogate
Cheltenham
Cambridge
Southend
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

Bold represents promotion-chasing rivals, italics represents teams in the current bottom 4. Tough spell coming up, then a statistically easier period, then 2 late promotion chargers to face right at the end of the season.

I’d guess we’ll need another 20 points, at least, to be sure of a play-off position, so 6 wins and a handful of draws out of our last 14 games would do that.

After picking up wins against the likes of Cheltenham, Salford, Exeter, Tranmere etc, and then losing to Mansfield, I suspect we’ll pick up, and also drop, points in places we might not expect.

Anyway, COME ON YOU SHRIMPS, great performance this evening, onto Carlisle!

Edit: Just seen Keith has posted a similar sort of thread, but I still think this is relevant in itself.

[Keith]

The interesting thing is, earlier in the season, both Carlisle & Newport were flying. A couple of draws would have been a good return. But now they are both having a really bad run of form, so this may be a great time to play them. Forest Green took a pasting off Stevenage this evening, so perhaps the wheels are coming off there too? Seven or nine points from the next three games and we can really begin to get [even more] excited!

[RapidShrimp]

Carlisle (3-1 W)
Forest Green
Newport
Harrogate
Cheltenham
Cambridge
Southend
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

[redrobo]

Carlisle (3-1 W)
Forest Green
Newport
Harrogate
Cheltenham
Cambridge
Southend
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

Let's hope our fate is settled before the Bradford game especially if both teams are seeking a play off or even better a guaranteed promotion spot as the outcome of that particular game.

[black morse]

Carlisle (3-1 W)
Forest Green
Newport
Harrogate
Cheltenham
Cambridge
Southend
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

Let's hope our fate is settled before the Bradford game especially if both teams are seeking a play off or even better a guaranteed promotion spot as the outcome of that particular game.

It's sometimes harder playing the bottom clubs towards the end of the season as they are fighting for their lives'. Port vale and Southend may fall in that category .......Grimsby might have already gone!

[RapidShrimp]

2 wins and a draw from 4 tough games - would’ve certainly taken that a few weeks ago.

Carlisle (3-1 W)
Forest Green (2-2)
Newport (3-1 L)
Harrogate (1-0 W)
Cheltenham
Cambridge
Southend
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

[RapidShrimp]

Quote from another thread

Songo'o back for the Port Vale game (if he can get back in). Apart from the next 2 and Bolton we have lots of very winnable games.

What can go wrong?

[Bare bum]

Ah, sorry old chap. Never noticed yours.

[jbc.shrimp]

Quote from another thread

Songo'o back for the Port Vale game (if he can get back in). Apart from the next 2 and Bolton we have lots of very winnable games.

What can go wrong?

More unnecessary silly red cards ! !

[RapidShrimp]

That’s now 4 wins and a draw in our last 6, putting us third in the form table, behind only Bolton and Stevenage, and just ahead of our next opponents Cambridge!

Crawley (3-1 W)
Carlisle (3-1 W)
Forest Green (2-2)
Newport (1-3 L)
Harrogate (0-1 W)
Cheltenham (1-0 W)
Cambridge
Southend
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

[Keith]

Looking at the run-in, Bolton are the only side whose final series of games are on paper at least, preferable to ours. Cambridge in particular, have a really tough run of games coming up, with their next five all being sides in or around the play-offs and the sixth being a resurgent Stevenage.

It will go right down to the wire!

[Andy D]

It will go right down to the wire!

just think if it does go down to the wire against Bradford and fans are allowed back, full house(wishful thinking)"

[Little Shrimp]

I have thought for a while that Cambridge will fall away given everyone has a game or two in hand and they have a super tough run-in.

The results seem to be coming still for them though and that big xG bubble doesn't seem to be bursting (they've massively 'over-scored' this season) - when will the Paul Mullin hotstreak end!?

Going to be really fascinating to see how things pan out. Bolton's rise doesn't look like stopping and Tranmere are flying too. Cheltenham ae a good team and will bounce back most likely. It will also be interesting to see how FGR get on now it looks like Matt could be out for the season.

[Keith]

It will go right down to the wire!

just think if it does go down to the wire against Bradford and fans are allowed back, full house(wishful thinking)"

Or Bolton!

Preferable would be for socially distanced/limited numbers, so only home fans, but on all four sides of the ground! Have about 50% occupancy but all Morecambe

On the other hand, perhaps the players who are used to playing in front of the biggest crowds are missing fans the most, so no fans back until the end of the season may be best for us???
(Just joking, let's get fans back ASAP)

[RapidShrimp]

Last 7:
Crawley (3-1 W)
Carlisle (3-1 W)
Forest Green (2-2 D)
Newport (1-3 L)
Harrogate (0-1 W)
Cheltenham (1-0 W)
Cambridge (2-1 L)

13 points from a possible 21, against 7 sides who have all found themselves in the top half for long spells this season, doesn’t sound a bad return! Especially considering we had 3 sendings off in just the last 4 of those - in a parallel universe we might have found ourselves getting a win against Newport and Forest Green, and a point on Friday, but also we might not have held on for the 3 points against Harrogate!

Excluding promotion rivals Bolton, and potential rivals Bradford (if they have another upturn in form), every team we play is in the bottom 9. Out of these remaining 8 games, we’ve only been beaten by one of these teams - Bradford - and we successfully got the 3 points against Southend, Grimsby, Oldham and Port Vale earlier in the season - albeit when the scrap for relegation wasn’t quite as serious as it is now.

Remaining:
Southend
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

On paper we are entering what might be considered our “easiest” run of the season so far, arguably the “easiest” run-in of the sides in the hunt for promotion, but we still have to prove our worth and deliver the 3 points, as it’s not going to be all plain sailing, as we have seen with the likes of the Mansfield game just a month or two ago.

Having said that, we have lost just once to teams currently below 14th in the table. Clearly we have the quality, let’s prove our worth!

[black morse]

I reckon we should get about 78 points....possibly not quite enough to get us automatic. Certainly if we slip up against any of the 'lower' teams we'll have to settle for play offs and then it's anybody's guess

[Redalert1970]

Port Vale away is far far from easy

They have won last 4 games including beating Exeter on Friday

[Little Shrimp]

Bolton and Port Vale are standing out to me at the moment as the toughest.

A few weeks ago Port Vale didn't seem that concerning, but given the form that's already been mentioned here it will probably be difficult.

I'd have a bit of hope for Bolton as Sarcevic is out for the season, and they miss him a fair bit in the final third. It showed when we played them as they were generally a bit toothless in our half at their place without him, and we should hopefully be stronger now we've adjusted to playing without Phillips more and should have Songo'o back.

[redrobo]

There will be no easy games from now on in and it will be as much a test of our character as our ability to get results even if we don;t play that well due to pressure.

[black morse]

There will be no easy games from now on in and it will be as much a test of our character as our ability to get results even if we don;t play that well due to pressure.

Absolutely but the pressure will be on most of the opposing teams as well as us.

[RapidShrimp]

Crawley (3-1 W)
Carlisle (3-1 W)
Forest Green (2-2 D)
Newport (1-3 L)
Harrogate (0-1 W)
Cheltenham (1-0 W)
Cambridge (2-1 L)
Southend (1-1 D)
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Oldham
Grimsby
Bolton
Walsall
Bradford

Seems about time for another win, eh?

[Keith]

It is so tight at the top of League Two, we can't afford many [any?] more slip-ups. But then, neither can any other side in the mix. Tonight, on paper at least, we have a 'winnable' game.

But there are a couple of interesting matches between the rest of the sides who are in contention.

Salford v Bolton is perhaps the pick of the crop. Would we want Bolton to win, making it more difficult for Salford to catch us? Assuming we win, Salford would then be eight points behind us with a game in hand. On the flip side, Salford win would mean catching Bolton was in our own hands and an automatic promotion spot potentially back within our grasp (Tranmere dependent). A draw would probably be the best outcome, still able to catch Bolton but making it a bit more difficult for Salford.

The other interesting fixture is Newport v Carlisle. Carlisle are 10th but only five points behind us, with a game in hand. Newport are seventh, two points behind but also with a game in hand. A Newport win will make it very difficult for Carlisle to catch us. But equally, it puts Newport in a better position to capitalise if one of the current automatic promotion sides falter.

The four teams currently in the play-offs are all in poor form. Over the last five games each, there have only been three wins between us in those twenty matches. That's relegation form, not promotion! Let's hope we come out of our mini-slump this evening.

[jbc.shrimp]

Let's just hope all results to the end of the season favour us for at least a P/O position. In D.A. We trust.

[broadwayshrimp]

So many different ways of trying to predict final league positions come the end of the season.
I took the average number of points per game each team has got home and away so far this season and applied that figure to the remaining home and away fixtures for each team.
I've assumed Cheltenham and Cambridge are going up followed by
Bolton 77 pts
Newport 74
Tranmere 73
Morecambe 73
FGR 73
Exeter 72
Bradford 69
Carlisle 68
Salford 68

[marky No.1]

I think Bolton are nailed on anyway, so i hope they win, also hope Newport win or draw.
I've given up autos now, so would be quite happy with 7th after the last 3 games.